Dharnas - What Next

Irrespective of the conspiracy theories of "London Plan" and "Script Writer", credit goes to PTI - Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf (Pakistan Justice Movement) and PAT - Pakistan Awami Tehrik (Peoples' Movement of Pakistan) for the longest sit-in in the history of Pakistan. Starting 14th Aug 2014, its been their 55th day on 24 Sep that they are present at D Square right in front of the Parliament House in Islamabad.

These protestors are out for so long demanding purification of corrupt political and electoral system in Pakistan which is a legitimate demand. There can be difference of opinion; on the method they have adopted, for demanding such reforms but no one can deny the fact that there is a dire need of these reforms to curb the dynastic, corrupt, elitist, and non-participatory "democracy" in the country.

Both the sit-ins are led by their respective leaders i.e., Imran Khan of PTI and Dr. Tahir ul Qadri of PAT who have been successful in bringing handsome amount of crowds with them for the sit-ins. Although basic demands of both the parties are different in nature as PTI is demanding electoral reforms for conduct of free and fair elections in future and PAT is of the view to rehash the entire political and administrative system in the country to provide justice and basic human rights to people in the light of first 40 articles of the constitution yet their immediate demands are similar in nature. These demands include: -

• Resignation of Prime Minister Mian Muhammad Nawaz Shareef - Both PTI and PAT are of the view that no free and fair trial of corruption in election can be held as long as Mr. Nawaz Sharif is in the chair.
• Resignation of Chief Minister of Punjab along with other federal and provincial ministers as they are involved in Model Town debacle where minimum 14 people died due to brutal use of state police allegedly under direct orders from the Chief Minister.
• Dissolution of National and all Provincial Assemblies as these consist of members who do not fulfil the basic criteria of being just and truthful as is required vide article 62 and 63 of the constitution.
• Holding of re-elections in the country after electoral reforms (in case of PTI's demand) and after reforms in the entire democratic system under a national government of technocrats (as demanded by PAT).

Both leaders have used all their cards by adopting following possible measures: -

• Public processions and addresses to big gatherings.
• Long march towards Islamabad and sit-in near Aabpara.
• Move to D Square near Parliament building (although initially both had given to understand that they will not enter in the sensitive areas).
• Move towards Presidency and Prime Minister House which also resulted in heaviest use of tear gas by the law enforcing agencies, killing minimum 3 and injuring about 30 people.

Government, on the other hand has its own reasons for rejecting the demands. Basic plea taken by the government is that they have been elected by majority votes and have the backing of 11 different parties (allies of government as well as opposition parties) in the parliament so why shall they accept the demands of few thousand people.

This dilemma has put the situation in stalemate and no one is ready to withdraw from their stances from both the sides. This has become the game of waiting and war of nerves. Government knows that as the time passes, these sit-ins will die their own death because of following factors: -

•  People in sit-in belong to lower, lower middle and middle class and they cannot leave their jobs/ businesses and other economic activities for very long time.
• By every passing day the weather in Islamabad is getting colder and as it gets severer, people will tend to move back to their native places.
• It will become a routine activity and all the adventurism and charisma in the personalities of Imran Khan and Dr Tahir ul Qadri will become part of routine and result into boredom.
• There will be no meat left in the speeches of leaders as they will not have nothing new to offer to their supporters.
• Government's propaganda will come into play that both these leaders have diverted the attention of the nation from other important issues like floods in Kashmir, Punjab and Sindh, and operation in North Waziristan by Pakistan Army.

PTI and PAT have put everything in their kitty on stakes and if they return without their demands been accepted, their political fame and future political activism will end forever. They, therefore have to look for some solid measures where they can exert pressure on government and force them to resign. As they have already exercised their options of big processions, addresses to masses present in the processions as well as listening to them live through the courtesy of electronic media, peaceful sit-ins as well as violent display of force, they must devise some other means to pressurize the government. 

The extremist method can be raid over the sensitive national buildings like Parliament House, Presidency and Pakistan Secretariat etc but this will entail brutal action by state law enforcing agencies and may also engage Pakistan Army (which will be the worst action).

A better and peaceful step they can take is spreading their sit-ins in other cities and block the economical and routine social cycle in the country. That will force the government to review its policy about dealing with these protesting forces. The only issue is that how will these parties manage to bring more people on the roads and sit there for few weeks. If they can manage that force of general public, that is the only viable peaceful option left with PTI and PAT.