Imran Khan Locks Down Islamabad

PTI leader Imran Khan, in pursuit of stern action against Prime Minister Nawaz Shareef, having allegedly involved in corruption and illegal money trafficking, has announced locked down of the capital city Islamabad on 2 November. Isolated on political front and not being supported by opposition parties of the country, Imran Khan has taken intrepid decision to go for solo flight against the government and to bring the purported prime minister to justice.

Imran Khan had first decided to go for lock down of capital on 30 October (Sunday) but later, through consultations with party leaders extended it to 2nd November. He has put forth two demands and has announced that unless either of the demands is met, lock down shall continue. The demands are - either Nawaz Shareef shall resign from the office of premiership or he shall present himself for accountability. 

Imran Khan in close collaboration with Dr. Tahir ul Qadri of Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) had fruitlessly sit in for almost four months in 2014 demanding resignation of Prime Minister Nawaz Shareef and had to quit due to non-persistent policies and demands. People lost interest and allegedly his ally Tahir ul Qadri had reached to an underhand deal with the government to end the sit in.

As soon as Panama papers were made public, it acted as a catalyst for Imran Khan who was already making hue and cry at every platform against the corruption and money laundering of Shareef family. Imran Khan immediately raised his voice and demanded stern accountability against the facts mentioned in Panama papers. His demanding reaction forced Nawaz Shareef to appear on national TV to address the nation twice as well as to make a speech in the parliament and clarify the allegations. Unfortunately his justifications on all the three occasions contradicted and lacked chronology of events. This caused further disappointment among the opposition and they wanted proper investigation of the charges levied against Nawaz Shareef and his family members.

Having failed to launch a combined movement of all the opposition parties, who parted away on one pretext or the other, and on cold response of Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), National Accountability Bureau (NAB), Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), and Supreme Court of Pakistan (SCP), PTI decided to launch a solo show near Raiwind - the farm house and residence of Nawaz Shareef in the suburbs of Lahore. The show was extraordinarily outstanding and thousands of people showed up on the call of Imran Khan against Nawaz Shareef and family. Imran Khan, during his public address at the occasion announced locking down the capital so that functioning of government could be stopped under a corrupt premier. 

To neutralize the pressure of Imran Khan's demands, two steps have been immediately taken by the treasury benches. First, SCP decided to enlist the petition of PTI, against the alleged corruption of Nawaz Shareef, for hearing by the panel of justices. Second, Speaker of the National Assembly sent the reference of disqualification of Prime Minister to ECP on the plea of hiding the facts from the Parliament, thus being ineligible to hold the office of Prime Minister under the constitution of Pakistan. Both these steps are received by people as delaying tactics and to gain time through official procedures and file work.

Imran Khan has demanded one of the two steps and has announced that lock down of Islamabad will continue till one of the two demands are fulfilled. the two demands put forth by PTI are: -

• Resignation of Nawaz Shareef from premiership.
• Nawaz Shareef to present himself for accountability.

Both these demands are criticized by opponents based on past behavior of PTI and response of accountability institutions. Major criticism is:-

Demand of Resignation

In 2014 PTI had sat in Islamabad for more than four months for the demand of resignation of Prime Minister on the charges of corruption, nepotism in governmental departments and appointments of close relatives of Shareef family on key appointments, and adverse governance. After four months, taking the plea of attack on Army Public School Peshawar by terrorists, Imran Khan decided to wind up the sit in. After the sit in, the speeches made by Imran Khan at different occasions and his reaction on several national issues dictated that he has shown his failure in demand and was found unable to justify his stance of asking the resignation of the premier. He also reversed his decision of resigning from National Assembly and he, along with all his elected members came back to assembly. Due to his turnabouts it is perceived by serious circles that he will again fail his demand and will end his protest as long as people lose interest.

Prime Minister to present himself for Accountability

The foremost question to this demand is - present before who? NAB has already stated that accountability without evidences is beyond their constitutional purview. FIA is not empowered enough to take any positive steps. Lastly SCP has already announced that the petition against Nawaz Shareef will be heard by them. So what is the forum left where Imran Khan wants Nawaz Shareef to present himself? This question remains unanswered by Imran Khan and his party so this demand, in itself, becomes equivocal. According to Imran Khan himself, all governmental functionaries and key appointment holders are loyal and trusted meek employees of Nawaz Shareef, so to what institution is he asking Nawaz Shareef to present himself for accountability? In case SCP, NAB or FIA clears Nawaz Shareef of all the charges levied on him, will Imran Khan accept the decision and accept that Nawaz Shareef was not involved in money laundering, tax evasion, plundering of public money, and purchase of foreign properties without proper money trail of his wealth?

Besides the criticism on his demands, questions are also being raised on the permanency of his stand, extent and duration of his lock down, especially when he is going for it in isolation and no other political party; even his previous allies, are supporting his call. PTI has also to cater for the alternate courses if government uses power against them and house arrests its leaders to avoid public unrest.

This, in any case is the last chance for Imran Khan to remain in politics. If he fails this time, he will leave political playground wide open to PML-N (in other words Nawaz Shareef Family) because next general elections are due in My 2018 and there will be no challenging opposition for PML-N especially in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan. This will be fair enough opportunity for Nawaz Shareef and company to form governments in center as well as in said provinces.  

General Elections 2018 - Probabilities

General elections for National and Provincial legislative assemblies are scheduled to be held in May 2018. Over past few decades, two party system has been the main criteria of political competition which has been challenged recently. After the adventurous 70s and military rule of Zia ul Haq from 1977 to 1986, two main political parties emerged as the force multipliers. These were Pakistan Muslim League (PML) (created by Zia ul Haq and later split into many groups) and Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) - founded by Mr. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. These two parties have been political rivals and have taken turns in government one after the other. In the provinces, however, nationalist parties like Muttihada Quami Movement (MQM), Awami National Party (ANP) and Balochistan National Party (BNP) have ruled Karachi, Khyber Pakhtunkhwah (KPK) and Balochistan provinces respectively while Pakistan Peoples Party has emerged single ruling party of Sind provinces for almost three decades.

 After military rule of General Pervez Musharraf (1999 to 2008), Pakistan returned to the track of democracy. Keeping in view the corruption, collusion, and signing of Charter of Democracy (COD) to facilitate each other in power marry-go-round, people of Pakistan wanted a third force to emerge and provide them social justice, socioeconomic opportunities, peace, and stability. Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) under the leadership of Imran Khan gained overwhelming popularity in General Elections (GE) 2008. Although PTI could not get many seats in the assemblies but PML-N and PPP realized that PTI had gained roots in all provinces and could be a major threat to their political monopoly in future.

Due to murder of Benazir Bhutto of PPP, Peoples' Party gained sympathy vote and was successful in forming central government with coalition provincial governments in Sind (with MQM), KPK (with ANP), and Balochistan (with BNP). In Punjab, however, PML-N formed the government. PPP's government proved to be highly unsuccessful as regards to governance, providing jobs to young and educated people, resolving energy crisis, and stabilizing law and order situation which had saturated due to terrorist activities by Taliban. The government under Asif Ali Zardari was rather accused of being involved in corruption, illegal gratifications, getting under the table commissions from local and foreign companies, and mismanaging means of mass transportation like Pakistan Railways, Pakistan International Airlines and other public sector transport facilities. Asif Ali Zardari removed ideological workers of PPP from important party positions and brought his personal friends and partners in crime at the forefront. Inefficient governance, dejection of common people and nepotism in Party's camp made PPP highly unpopular. PPP; a party once considered to be the symbol of federation with very deep rooted influence in all parts of the country squeezed to be a local party of Sind province. PPP's leadership was opposed by judiciary, bureaucracy, and generally by the middle leadership of Army. All these circumstances proved counter productive for PPP and in 2013, it was completely wiped of from all areas other than rural Sind.

GE 2013 were held in May and the real competition was between PML-N and PTI. Although PPP competed in all provinces as well as in the center but it was already known that they will lose due to their poor performance during the last five years' rule. As a result of GE, the country observed a new trend. All the provincial parties belonging to their specific provinces won the elections and no party could be identified as a central party with their influence all over the country. Punjab elections were won by PML-N: a Punjab based party, KPK elections by PTI: a party led by Imran Khan (Niazi from KPK), Sind elections went to PPP: a party lead by Sindhi (Bhutto/ Zardari dynasty), and in Balochistan, nationalists Baloch leaders got majority votes. As is the electoral system of Pakistan, any party winning in Punjab; based on population, is successful in forming central government.PML-N, therefore, formed the federal government in the center.

keeping in view the past performance, steps taking for the betterment of governance, socioeconomic development, mass transportation projects, involvement in law and order situation and restoration of peace in the country in general and in Karachi in particular, probability of winning elections in 2018 is discussed for major political parties as under: -

Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP)

Once known as "Chain of unity among all the provinces" has almost done political suicide after the murder of Benazir Bhutto. Asif Ali Zardari, who never enjoyed good reputation being involved in corruption, ruined the party by sidelining ideological and sincere workers, and appointing his personal friends at important party as well as governmental positions. This not only resulted in discontentment of old and loyal workers of PPP but also inflicted heavy losses to overall performance of the government from 2008 to 2013. Party shrank to Sind only with no representation in KPK and Balochistan. In Punjab, those PPP candidates, who won the elections, primarily got success due to their own rapport, social work, and influence in public. During the later part of PPP government in Sind, party had major split when two trusted friends of Asif Ali Zardari, former Interior Minister of Sind Dr. Zulfiqar Mirza and former Senator Faisal Raza Abidi could not take the corrupt practices of the party leadership and spoke on media against such practices. This gave a major jolt to PPP and its already diminishing support was rapidly hagridden. Recent operation in Sind by Pakistan Rangers and arrests of very close aides of Asif Ali Zardari like Dr. Asim Hussain and others have proven their involvement in aiding terrorists, target killings, corruption and anti-state activities. These negative developments have adversely effected the good-will of PPP and its existence in the country has a serious question mark. Unfortunately, after the death of Benazir Bhutto, party is void of any mature and visionary leadership. Asif Zardari has tried to launch his only son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari in mainstream politics but he lacks experience, having lived in UK and ME all his life; does not know the dynamics of Pakistani social and political realities, and can not deliver what is expected from a leader who can replace seasoned and accomplished leader to the magnificence of Benazir Bhutto. On the face of it, it seems like Pakistan Peoples' Party has outlived its natural life and at present has no leadership, vision, and/ or plan that can revive its diminishing political entity in Pakistan. In 2018, it is expected that Peoples' Party will be able to win few provincial seats in interior Sind but on Federal level, will not have any worthwhile position. In Sind too, Dr Zulfiqar Mirza has become a major threat in Badin and surrounding areas. Urban areas of Sind have already fallen in favor of MQM for last few decades. If PPP has to revive itself, it needs a visionary and dynamic leader, strong and active leadership in Punjab and KPK, and has to disassociate itself from the criminal and corrupt elements in the party.

Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf (PTI)

Because of stubborn and inelastic political behavior, not been able to analyze ground realities, taking wrong decisions at domestic as well as political fronts, Imran Khan has rapidly lost his popularity. He is leading "the single man standing" party which becomes valueless without his personal charisma. In the recent past, he has lost local bodies elections in Punjab, narrowly escaped defeat in KPK, and was outnumbered in Sind by other political forces. Imran Khan has lost on all moral grounds he has called public for sit-ins and protests against government. His plea of corruption and fraudulent practices in election of 2013 have been rejected by an apex level tribunal, formed on his own request. His party lost by-elections of NA-122 and could not gain any support in local bodies elections. Exactly a day prior to the conduct of elections, the announcement of his divorce to Reham Khan proved to be the last nail in the coffin. If PTI has to win in GE 2018, Imran Khan and party leadership must reorganize the party at gross root level and have to focus at revolutionary social welfare programs in KPK. They still have almost two years in term. Instead of crying over the spilt milk, PTI shall focus on the good governance and introduction of an ideal democratic system in KPK which they can showcase as a model for the rest of Pakistan. They must also adopt solid measures to gain popularity in rural and backward areas of Punjab otherwise they will only be visible in urban areas as a saturated party and that is insufficient for them to come into power for next ten years.

Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N)

PML-N is ruling Punjab for the sixth term and has gained strong foothold in Punjab politics. Electoral system is such that any party winning GE in Punjab can easily form government in the center because of the population and number of seats for National Assembly. PML-N, being the ruling party for very long time has also acquired experience in use of unfair means during polling and is famous for misappropriation of votes. Party leadership is filthy rich and knows that "everything is for sale, if proper bid is offered" and this has always worked in their way. Party has never been hesitant in buying bureaucrats, members of provincial as well as national assemblies, lawyers, media persons and even Judges of lower courts to as high as Supreme Court of Pakistan. Party has no moral values or ethics. Its top leadership has told lies to the nation a number of times without feeling shame. Party's command is in the hands of Sharif dynasty and all key appointments within party as well as at government level are held by the family members of Sharifs. Party believes in such development projects which have tangible and visible effects with opportunities of earning high kickbacks. They are not bothered about providing basic social rights of education, health, clean drinking water etc to the public. Instead, their focus is on construction of motorways and metro bus system since such projects are visible to the public and are evidences of growth and development. Party, through Charter of Democracy (COD); an agreement of mutual cooperation between PPP and PML-N, bribery to those who are at the helm of affairs, blackmailing and corrupt practices in elections is likely to win GE 2018 in Punjab in particular and in KPK in general. Victory of PML-N is not because of their being popular party but its because of poor performance of other parties like PPP in Sind and PTI in KPK. In Punjab the ground is almost vacant for them because PPP has been wiped out and PTI has been unsuccessful in making any headway in the 80% population living in the rural areas.

Mutehidda Qaumi Movement (MQM)

MQM has been an influential sociopolitical ethnic group of Urdu speaking community in urban areas of Sind. MQM has been winning National/ Provincial, and Local Bodies elections in Karachi, Hyderabad and other urban areas of Sindfor the last three decades. Despite repeated efforts to have their influence in other parts the country, the party could not gain any worthwhile success. Recently, Altaf Hussain, leader of MQM; in self exile since 1984, is under investigation by Scotland Yard for cases of money laundering and murder of Dr. Imran Farooq: co-founder and close aide of Altaf Hussain, who had left the party due to conflicts with Altaf's policies. Within Karachi MQM is under clouds for strong evidences of involvement in target killing, providing protection to terrorists and anti-state elements, illegal land grabbing, kidnapping for ransom and collection of money from traders and merchants on gun point. These charges have deteriorated the image of MQM a great deal but due to their monopoly in urban areas of Sind for a long time, no immediate threat is present for them. PTI, Jamat e Islami (JI) and PPP are trying to replace them in urban areas but due to their poor performance people are not willing to elect them in forthcoming elections too. Although MQM's future is rapidly diminishing as their first tier leadership is directly involved in criminal activities but they have the capability to manipulate the election in the absence of any strong rival. MQM needs to reorganize and think outside the box for sustenance in future. They need to look for alternate leadership that can keep them united after Altaf Hussain and also need to build a rapport of non-involvement in criminal activities by handing over the criminals in their ranks to law enforcing agencies.           

MQM Minus Altaf Formula

Recent speeches of Altaf Hussain, the founder leader of MQM have raised number of questions about his mental health, trustworthiness and sanity. He sounds ill, his speeches are are not interlinked and it sounds as he has no control over his words while delivering his long telephonic addresses.

Altaf Hussain also seems unsatisfied from the performance of his "Rabita Committee" members and has alleged them for involvement in illegal land occupation (land mafia) and Bhatta collection. He has a number of times dissolved Rabita Committee and has also announced to retire as the leader of MQM.

There is no doubt that Altaf Hussain has used Mohajir card very effectively and through this tactics he has vast following in urban areas of Sindh, specially in Karachi and Hyderabad. Majority of migrants from India who got settled in these cities of Sindh have got together under the flag of MQM and have supported Altaf Hussain for his political thoughts. In the recent times, however, a large number of these people are not satisfied by the speeches and acts of Altaf Hussain. They may not express their feelings openly in public fearing the consequences but in private discussions, there is a lot of discontentment.

Based on above facts and the ailing physical health of Altaf Hussain, it is just time that MQM must be guided for alternative leadership in the life of Altaf Hussain. This will help MQM stay united under a central leadership and Altaf Hussain can mentor the next leader personally. No one is eternal and Altaf Hussain is also subject to fading away sooner or later. It is in the best interest of MQM that they should be given a new leader by Altaf Hussain himself before its too late and MQM breaks into many groups under different leaders and the whole scenario of politics in Karachi changes. It is of more importance as other political forces like PTI, JI, PPP and ANP are causing serious threats to the monopoly of MQM. 

Emotional attachment of Mohajirs with Altaf Hussain is natural but it is about time that they must understand the ground realities and give someone else a chance to keep them united on one platform. It is a situation similar to South Africa where Nelson Mandela provided alternate leadership to his nation in his life and left no vacuum at the political front. 

Another Robbery

Despite his controversial dreams, predictions about his age to be 63 years, unsuccessful sit-in in Islamabad in 2012 for electoral reforms, and other conspiracy theories about him like "London Plan", "Planted by CIA" etc, his call was once again responded by poor people overwhelmingly. Dr. Tahir ul Qadri of Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) asked his people to stand up against the corrupt system and gave a call of "peaceful agitation" against the government. His uprising started in May 2014 and in the month of June, about 100 of PAT's workers were fired upon by Punjab Police, out of which 14 laid their lives.

This brutal act of 14 state backed murders gave new blood to Dr. Tahir ul Qadri's movement and he announced to sit-in at Islamabad on 14 August 2014 (day of creation of Pakistan in 1947). His call was honoured by his allies parties like Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam) - PML (Q), Muttehada Sunni Council (United Sunni Counsil), and Majlis e Wehdat ul Muslimeen (MWM). The points for which Dr. Tahir ul Qadri launched his movement were: -

• Resignation of Mian Muhammad Nawaz Shareef (Prime Minister of Pakistan), Mian Muhammad Shahbaz Shareef (Chief Minister of Punjab Province), Federal and Provincial Ministers, and Police authorities alleged to be involved in Model Town fiasco that resulted in killing of 14 people.
• Implementation of first 40 suspended articles of the constitution that speak of providing basic facilities and rights to common people.
• Dissolution of National and Provincial Assemblies and formulation of a National Government based on technocrats and specialists of different field.
• Accountability of corruption cases of politicians and bureaucrats and punishments to the culprits under a transparent accountability process to be started by National Government.
• Free and fair elections after the accountability process which were to be contested on the basis of "participatory" democracy where common people were to be empowered and given their due share in government.

Dr. Tahir ul Qadri collaborated with Imran Khan of Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) as PTI was also demanding accountability and audit of May 2013's General Elections and demanded accountability of malpractices during the elections. Before starting his long march he addressed a big gathering at his headquarters in Model Town Lahore and had announced that public may shoot him or Imran Khan, whosoever withdraws the call of Islamabad sit-in without having achieved their goals.

At the start of sit-in on night 14-15 August 2014, both the parties were successful in arranging big gatherings and the sit-in started with full zeal and fervour. After a few days when they thought that their sit-in opposite to Jinnah Stadium, Islamabad will have no impact in pressurizing the government, both PTI and PAT decided to move to red zone of Islamabad (an area around constitution avenue with President House, Parliament Building, Supreme Court of Pakistan, Foreign Office Building, Prime Minister Secretariat, Pakistan Secretariat (offices of different federal ministries), Pakistan Television and Pakistan Broadcasting Corporation Buildings astride the road. This move forward was against the terms and code of conduct of the sit-in mutually agreed between these two parties and the government. Government once again used force against the people of both parties who violated the code of conduct. This resulted in more losses of lives and injuries to common people whereas the leaders remained mounted in bullet proof vehicles.

During 69 days' longest ever sit-in the modern history, people suffered all kinds of natural and governmental atrocities for the noble cause and empowerment of commoners. They faced the sever summers, bore heavy monsoon rains, wind storms and spent nights in the open sky. People were of the view that this time their leader was determined and will not leave them bewildered. The sit-in gave hope to the nation that those sitting at D-Square at Islamabad were fighting for their rights. Common men from all over the country gave their full moral support to these people sitting in the sit-in. Political workers from other parties like Pakistan Peoples' Party and even ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) had their sympathies towards the workers of PAT. Electronic media of Pakistan provided their full assistance and support to Dr. Tahir ul Qadri but on the night of 21-22 Oct 2014, Dr. Tahir ul Qadri once again betrayed the people of Pakistan and called off his sit-in at Islamabad.

His call was proven a false alarm and he, after having caused so much loss to national economy, lives of people, having made people suffer all sorts of hazards of heat, rains, hail storms etc, and having endangered their lives, Dr. Tahir ul Qadri, once again twisted and chewed his own words. Changed his stance and without having achieved a single goal of his sit-in called it off, leaving following questions unanswered: -

• Did Prime Minister, Chief Minister or any other nominated culprits of Model Town Debacle resign?
• Have people been empowered through implementation of first 40 articles of the constitution of Pakistan?
• Have the assemblies been dissolved and a national government formed?
• Should Dr. Tahir ul Qadri be shot dead as per his own statement that anyone withdrawing from sit-in should be shot?
• Have the families of martyrs of Model Town and Islamabad been provided with justice or shall the blame of their killings be shifted to Dr. Tahir ul Qadri?
• Will people (other than his own religious followers who are brainwashed thoroughly) trust him again and act on his call in future?
• Will PAT gain popularity vote in any of the forthcoming elections and come into power to change the corrupt system through parliamentary means?
• Has Dr. Tahir ul Qadri not breached his trustworthiness and acceptance in general public.

PPP - Breaking in the Making

Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto founded and raised Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) with a vision to empower labourers, farmers, factory workers and poor class of the society. His slogans were very attractive and represented the wishful dreams of poor people. Pakistan Peoples' Party, thus; within few years, became the most favourite party of the country and won first ever General Elections held in 1970 in West Pakistan with overwhelming majority. The slogan of Roti (food to eat), Kapra (dress to wear), and Makan (Shelter to live) was something desired by every human being and this dream slogan kept the party alive for decades. 

After judicial murder of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, PPP fought against the military regimes of 1977 and 1999, under the leadership of Benazir Bhutto (daughter of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto) and gained public sympathy because of murder of her father and two brothers. PPP workers also stood firm against the brutalities of Zia's martial law and the party came up as an ideological party and a hope for the poor. Due to its influence in all the four provinces, Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, PPP was considered as a political force that can bind all the provinces and areas of Pakistan as one federal unit. This status of the party remained popular till early 90's thereafter, things started deteriorating because of Benzir Bhutto's husband Mr. Asif Ali Zardari's involvement in corruption and getting kickbacks on various mega governmental projects. He became famous as Mr 10%.

Another major opposition to PPP was Punjab based Zia backed Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) PML (N), who posed serious hindrance to PPP in all provinces, especially in the most populated province of Punjab. Both parties caused considerable loss to each other when they took turns in forming central governments. Both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Shareef took two turns each as Prime Ministers. Although this introduced two party politics in the country but both got involved in corruption and making personal money. This gradually created the distance between rulers and general public and none of the party made any serious efforts to keep the harmony and unity amongst the masses.

On the broader spectrum, the situation in the region, Russian invasion in Afghanistan, involvement of USA, Iranian Islamic revolution and its counter measures by Saudi Arabia and Gulf nations, economic growth in China, and India's race towards becoming super power left their impact on internal socio-political situation in Pakistan. Country was subject to all kinds of factors leading towards disintegration. People split on the basis of religion, sects, geography, linguistics, and regional politics. During the martial law/ emergency imposed by General Parvez Musharraf, all sorts of political activities were seized and leadership of PPP and PML (N) was exiled. This further deteriorated the political situation and the nation was prone to target killings, religious based killings, suicidal bomb attacks, attacks on major military and civilian installations and other forms of religious and ethnic extremism. 

After the murder of Benazir Bhutto, PPP's reins were taken over by Mr. Asif Ali Zardari as Co-Chairman of PPP and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (Benazir and Asif Zardari's son) was made its Chairman to take over the party on gaining the age of becoming member of the Parliament. Zardari was already notorious for his corruption and this accidental takeover of PPP by him aired discontentment in party workers. Barring the leaders of PPP Sindh Province, where PPP was in power, all other leaders and party workers had a silent resentment and this widened the gulf between the leadership and party workers. Workers of PPP always had the vision of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in mind and looked for a leader who could make efforts to get them out of miseries and provide them the basic necessities of life like "Roti, Kapra, and Makan".

Recently, Imran Khan of Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) and Dr. Tahir ul Qadri of Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) started their movements of "change" and "revolution" and enlightened common people of their basic social and constitutional rights. This motivated people to join their movements and leave the parties they were associated with for the reason than none of the parties had done anything for the welfare of common people. Workers of PPP in Punjab, Balochistan, KPK and other parts overwhelmingly shifted their loyalties from Bhutto's Party to Khan's and Tahir ul Qadri's party basically due to the reason that leadership and workers had a great communication gap and the dreams were beings dealt by the two leaders of the movements. PPP leadership mostly restricted to drawing room politics and never bothered to reach out and meet the workers.

Due to 2 party system of politics, PPP and PML (N) signed an agreement called Charter of Dmocracy (COD) through which they reached to an understanding that both will co-operate with each other for mutual benefits and no cases of corruption will be opened against each other. This also caused resentment in PPP workers since they wanted PPP leadership to make serious efforts and stop the looting and misappropriation of money by PML (N).

Above are the reasons that have left the party in shambles and the Chairman (Bilawal Bhutto Zardari) and Co-Chairman (Asif Ali Zardari) have to take major steps if they have to bring the party back to mainstream politics at national level. Some measure they need to take immediately are : -

• Leave the reconciliation policy aside and take a serious stance against their traditional rivals like PML (N) and MQM.
• Re-elect the local leadership at the lowest level and restructure the hierarchy within the party.
• Meet party workers frequently and make them believe that they have not been abandoned.
• Bring their assets from abroad in the country and show real development in the rural areas of deprived Sindh and Balochistan.
• Established refreshed command network in Punjab that can mobilize people.
• Wash away the stigma of drawing room politics and empower party workers to make them understand that they are still at the helm of party affairs.
• Show clear stance against non-democratic forces and deny their back-door nexus with regional or linguistic parties.
• Get rid of disloyal elements who have gained dtrong roots in the party just for their personal gains.
• Bilawal Bhutto must encash the affection and love he enjoys amongst the poor and village based people who treat him as their beloved and saviour being the son of their ideal leader Benazir Bhutto and grandson of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto.

MQM - A Pressure Group?

The circumstances that provoked Altaf Hussain and other Mohajir student leaders to raise a platform for voicing the issues of Mohajirs in Karachi were such that a ferocious and animated approach was required. When All Pakistan Mohajir Students Organization (APMSO) was formed, it represented itself as an iconic institution for the rights of Mohajirs. The slogan was so attractive that all the migrants of 1947 either joined the movement or had empathy with its cause. Seeing its strength and the impact it could create in Karachi, General Zia ul Haq picked Altaf Hussain to raise a proper political pressure group in the name of Mohajirs that could neutralize the strong hold of Pakistan Peoples’ Party and Jamat Islami in urban areas of Sindh. This became the main motivation of creation of MQM.

As MQM came into being, it started to play the role of godfather of Mohajirs, especially Urdu speaking community in Karachi and Haiderabad. Since it was assigned the role of a pressure group, MQM used all fair and unfair means to spread its say in the public. For the first time people of Karachi came across the incidents of sporadic firing at public places, anonymous killings, intensive incidents of sectarian violence, kidnapping for ransom, and Bhatta Khori (illegal collection of money by threats of murders or by assurance of protection against other pressure groups) from businessmen. Incidents of killings of non-Urdu speaking inhabitants of Karachi like Punjabis, Pashtoons and Sindhis also increased manifold. These acts certainly created terror of MQM in general masses but also made them a hateful cadre amongst public and establishment.

Since this policy of MQM bore fruit and it became major pressure group in urban areas of Sindh, their leadership adopted this modus operandi as a universal constitution for their movement and they are following the same till date. They have literally seized Karachi and Haiderabad and have established a state within the state. Following are some of the features of their pressure tactics to keep urban Sindh under their control: -

• Establishing no-go areas in the cities where even law enforcing agencies could not enter without the permission of MQM.

• Controlling media through murder and death threats to journalists. If any TV Channel telecasts any criticism on the leadership or policies of MQM, their telecast is blocked in the urban areas.

• Words of Altaf Hussain are taken as a revelation from God and are considered as final and executive order.

• Blackmailing majority ruling provincial government, sometimes by supporting them and sitting on treasury benches in Provincial Assembly while withdrawing their support and sitting on opposition benches on the other. 

•  Taking strong political position on a certain issue on one day and opposing the same with same strength the other, to their own suiting. MQM has mostly failed to stand for the just cause; instead they justify all the actions they take to suit their own political advantage. 

•  Invented the curse of “Military Wing” in political parties of Pakistan. To tackle this, other political parties also established such wings and politics moved from table talks to street violence.

• xploitation of Central and Provincial Governments in their own advantage since they control Karachi, the main port of Pakistan and hub of economic activities. If their demands are not met, they tend to block the economic activities by closure of markets and mills through terror and use of force.

• Mass scale money collection in the name of “Donations” from factory, mills, shops and business owners. Major share of this money is sent to London to meet the expenditures of Royal living of Altaf Hussain who is residing there as a result of self-proclaimed exile for more than 25 years without any job or work. London Police has registered cases of money laundering against him as they found solid evidences against him.

• Promotion and support of bhatta and land mafia for financial gains and to strike terror in the hearts of innocent public.

• Collection of Zakat (Islamic tax on wealth), Fitrah (annual charity after fasting), skins of slaughtered animals on Eid al Azha (Celebrations of slaughtering animals in the cause of Allah) etc. These all charities and give-aways are on voluntarily basis and no one can forcefully collect these but MQM collects these by use of life threats or at gun point.

In the recent past, due to adverse unrest and overall turbulent situation in Karachi, MQM demanded proper military operation against the trouble creators. This demand was once again acceded to and Rangers were given special powers to launch an “across the board” operation against everyone involved in disrupting the peace of the city. During the operation Rangers arrested the criminal irrespective of their political affiliation. No other party had any objection on such arrests but MQM - the main initiator of such operation - always made hue and cry as and when any of their worker was arrested.

This policy was adopted to pressurize law enforcing agencies and to show that there are criminals all over the city but every member of MQM is absolutely free of any evil. On the night 24-25 September Rangers raided the office of MQM Gulshan e Hadid Sector and arrested few miscreants who were hiding in MQM’s office after firing on the vehicle of law enforcing agencies. As usual, MQM wanted their men to be released and they have resolved to sit-in at different places of Karachi thereby seizing the economic activities in the city and causing blockade to public routine like schooling, movement of ambulances and people moving from their homes to work places.

 

MQM must understand that if they want to gain popularity and have their influence over other parts of the country they must stop the policy of blackmailing, pressure politics and threats of life to all quarters. They must adhere to the law of the land and if law enforcing agencies have started operation for restoration of peace in Karachi, they must allow and support such operation even if it is against their own people. Use of Mohajir card and spreading hate amongst different segments of social fibre in the country they must send message of harmony and unity. Rule through terror does not last long and has short lived impact whereas rule through winning the hearts is everlasting and bring laurels in the longer run. MQM needs to review their policy if they truly want to be in the mainstream of politics at national level.

Dharnas - What Next

Irrespective of the conspiracy theories of "London Plan" and "Script Writer", credit goes to PTI - Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf (Pakistan Justice Movement) and PAT - Pakistan Awami Tehrik (Peoples' Movement of Pakistan) for the longest sit-in in the history of Pakistan. Starting 14th Aug 2014, its been their 55th day on 24 Sep that they are present at D Square right in front of the Parliament House in Islamabad.

These protestors are out for so long demanding purification of corrupt political and electoral system in Pakistan which is a legitimate demand. There can be difference of opinion; on the method they have adopted, for demanding such reforms but no one can deny the fact that there is a dire need of these reforms to curb the dynastic, corrupt, elitist, and non-participatory "democracy" in the country.

Both the sit-ins are led by their respective leaders i.e., Imran Khan of PTI and Dr. Tahir ul Qadri of PAT who have been successful in bringing handsome amount of crowds with them for the sit-ins. Although basic demands of both the parties are different in nature as PTI is demanding electoral reforms for conduct of free and fair elections in future and PAT is of the view to rehash the entire political and administrative system in the country to provide justice and basic human rights to people in the light of first 40 articles of the constitution yet their immediate demands are similar in nature. These demands include: -

• Resignation of Prime Minister Mian Muhammad Nawaz Shareef - Both PTI and PAT are of the view that no free and fair trial of corruption in election can be held as long as Mr. Nawaz Sharif is in the chair.
• Resignation of Chief Minister of Punjab along with other federal and provincial ministers as they are involved in Model Town debacle where minimum 14 people died due to brutal use of state police allegedly under direct orders from the Chief Minister.
• Dissolution of National and all Provincial Assemblies as these consist of members who do not fulfil the basic criteria of being just and truthful as is required vide article 62 and 63 of the constitution.
• Holding of re-elections in the country after electoral reforms (in case of PTI's demand) and after reforms in the entire democratic system under a national government of technocrats (as demanded by PAT).

Both leaders have used all their cards by adopting following possible measures: -

• Public processions and addresses to big gatherings.
• Long march towards Islamabad and sit-in near Aabpara.
• Move to D Square near Parliament building (although initially both had given to understand that they will not enter in the sensitive areas).
• Move towards Presidency and Prime Minister House which also resulted in heaviest use of tear gas by the law enforcing agencies, killing minimum 3 and injuring about 30 people.

Government, on the other hand has its own reasons for rejecting the demands. Basic plea taken by the government is that they have been elected by majority votes and have the backing of 11 different parties (allies of government as well as opposition parties) in the parliament so why shall they accept the demands of few thousand people.

This dilemma has put the situation in stalemate and no one is ready to withdraw from their stances from both the sides. This has become the game of waiting and war of nerves. Government knows that as the time passes, these sit-ins will die their own death because of following factors: -

•  People in sit-in belong to lower, lower middle and middle class and they cannot leave their jobs/ businesses and other economic activities for very long time.
• By every passing day the weather in Islamabad is getting colder and as it gets severer, people will tend to move back to their native places.
• It will become a routine activity and all the adventurism and charisma in the personalities of Imran Khan and Dr Tahir ul Qadri will become part of routine and result into boredom.
• There will be no meat left in the speeches of leaders as they will not have nothing new to offer to their supporters.
• Government's propaganda will come into play that both these leaders have diverted the attention of the nation from other important issues like floods in Kashmir, Punjab and Sindh, and operation in North Waziristan by Pakistan Army.

PTI and PAT have put everything in their kitty on stakes and if they return without their demands been accepted, their political fame and future political activism will end forever. They, therefore have to look for some solid measures where they can exert pressure on government and force them to resign. As they have already exercised their options of big processions, addresses to masses present in the processions as well as listening to them live through the courtesy of electronic media, peaceful sit-ins as well as violent display of force, they must devise some other means to pressurize the government. 

The extremist method can be raid over the sensitive national buildings like Parliament House, Presidency and Pakistan Secretariat etc but this will entail brutal action by state law enforcing agencies and may also engage Pakistan Army (which will be the worst action).

A better and peaceful step they can take is spreading their sit-ins in other cities and block the economical and routine social cycle in the country. That will force the government to review its policy about dealing with these protesting forces. The only issue is that how will these parties manage to bring more people on the roads and sit there for few weeks. If they can manage that force of general public, that is the only viable peaceful option left with PTI and PAT. 

The Art of Possibilities

In the modern world, politics is known as the art of possibilities thereby understood as the art where a politician is "officially" permitted to tell lies and mold the situation to his/ her own benefit. This type of political practice allows a politician to take a U turn if the situation gets against his stand on any issue, permits him to play with the words and interpret any of his own statements as it suits the situation. 

The question is that is this type of politics stays within the bounds of ethics, morality and truthfulness? In Pakistan, especially, politics is generally treated as an art of fraud, false promises, baseless claims and giving false and impracticable hopes to the general public. Politicians, therefore, are generally known as "Dream Merchants" who use the expectations and hopes of people for their own benefits and personal gains. Their slogans and claims during the election campaigns and while addressing the public are full of lies which are never fulfilled after they get the votes from public and come into power.

Pakistan, so called "Citadel of Islam" is being ruled by an elite class consisting few hundred families who have shaped politics as such that its fruits are not reached to anyone outside the elites. General public is just there to vote for them and after the election no one even bothers to get back to them to address their issues. So called democratic leaders do not exercise democracy within their parties and all the political parties are being ruled through dynasties. People are made to obey their leader to the extent of worship and no one in the party can dare to differ from whatever is said by the party leader. 

The practice of telling lies, making false promises and breaching the trust of people is against the basic principles of Islam. Islam categorizes its followers in 3 groups namely Muslims (submitters), Momins (faithfuls) and Munafiqs (insincere). In accordance with the Islamic teachings, this insincere cadre of people will be in the lowest level in the hellfire. The signs of there people as described in a Hadith (the saying of Prophet Muhammad (sallallahu alyehi wa aal e hi wasalam)) as described in Bukhari (Book 1, Vol 2, Hadith 32) are: -

• Whenever he speaks, he tells a lie.
• Whenever he promises, he always breaks it.
• If you trust him, he proves to be dishonest (if you place something under his custody trusting him, he won't return it).

In the light of above signs, it is to be judged if today's politics is the art of possibilities or sheer act of insincerity for which the announced reward is the lowest grade in hellfire.

Issues with MQM

Recent telephonic addresses of Altaf Hussain, leader of MQM, to the General Workers of the movement have left few unanswered questions about the internal issues. It seems like Altaf Hussain has lost the grip over the think-tanks and office bearers of his movement and he has serious concerns over their discipline, actions, role in bridging the communication between the Quaid and Party Workers.

 During his address on Sep 4 , Altaf Hussain announced that Karachi Tanzeemi Committee (KTC) shall be dis-functional by 11 Sep which has been set as ineffective on due date. He in his recent speech also put MQM's Rabita Committee (the highest body for keeping the party chain intact) on last warning and decided to re-elect its members as soon as appropriate names were forwarded by the offices of the movement in due course of time.

Some important inferences drawn from these vital steps are discussed below: -

Timings

It is important to keep in mind the timings of these speeches. In Islamabad, Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf (PTI) led by Imran Khan and Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) under the leadership of Tahir ul Qadri are protesting against the rigging in 2013 General Elections and for want of renewal of democratic system in Pakistan. MQM, initially supported the demands of both the parties but then backed-off seeing that all parties in the parliament have joined hands with the government against the agitating parties outside parliament building. Altaf Hussain must have thought it appropriate to raise the issues at this moment when apparently federal government has lost its strength in general public. He could possible achieve following benefits by his speeches at this time: -

• Raise his voice to support General Musharraf's case as it was being dealt with stubborn attitude of Nawaz government when it was in strength.
• Prove all his workers innocent for all the turbulence in Karachi and criticize law enforcers for the arrests of "innocent" MQM workers.
• Raise the voice for separate Sind for Mohajirs while the government is already in a fix to deal with PTI and PAT.
• Stay in media, that was giving excessive coverage to the live speeches; and debates thereon, of Imran Khan and Tahir ul Qadri.

MQM Exposed?

During his address to the party workers Altaf Hussain asked them to recommend names of workers to be included in new Rabita Committee who were: -

• Educated.
• Not involved in Land Mafia.
• Not involved in Bhatta.
• Not involved in Corruption.
• Trusted old party workers.

This clearly indicates that office bearers of MQM Rabita Committee, despite all their clarifications and denial of being involved in Land Mafia and Bhatta Khori were directly involved in all these crimes since these were the issues, their leader residing in London was not happy with.