General Elections 2018 - Probabilities

General elections for National and Provincial legislative assemblies are scheduled to be held in May 2018. Over past few decades, two party system has been the main criteria of political competition which has been challenged recently. After the adventurous 70s and military rule of Zia ul Haq from 1977 to 1986, two main political parties emerged as the force multipliers. These were Pakistan Muslim League (PML) (created by Zia ul Haq and later split into many groups) and Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) - founded by Mr. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. These two parties have been political rivals and have taken turns in government one after the other. In the provinces, however, nationalist parties like Muttihada Quami Movement (MQM), Awami National Party (ANP) and Balochistan National Party (BNP) have ruled Karachi, Khyber Pakhtunkhwah (KPK) and Balochistan provinces respectively while Pakistan Peoples Party has emerged single ruling party of Sind provinces for almost three decades.

 After military rule of General Pervez Musharraf (1999 to 2008), Pakistan returned to the track of democracy. Keeping in view the corruption, collusion, and signing of Charter of Democracy (COD) to facilitate each other in power marry-go-round, people of Pakistan wanted a third force to emerge and provide them social justice, socioeconomic opportunities, peace, and stability. Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) under the leadership of Imran Khan gained overwhelming popularity in General Elections (GE) 2008. Although PTI could not get many seats in the assemblies but PML-N and PPP realized that PTI had gained roots in all provinces and could be a major threat to their political monopoly in future.

Due to murder of Benazir Bhutto of PPP, Peoples' Party gained sympathy vote and was successful in forming central government with coalition provincial governments in Sind (with MQM), KPK (with ANP), and Balochistan (with BNP). In Punjab, however, PML-N formed the government. PPP's government proved to be highly unsuccessful as regards to governance, providing jobs to young and educated people, resolving energy crisis, and stabilizing law and order situation which had saturated due to terrorist activities by Taliban. The government under Asif Ali Zardari was rather accused of being involved in corruption, illegal gratifications, getting under the table commissions from local and foreign companies, and mismanaging means of mass transportation like Pakistan Railways, Pakistan International Airlines and other public sector transport facilities. Asif Ali Zardari removed ideological workers of PPP from important party positions and brought his personal friends and partners in crime at the forefront. Inefficient governance, dejection of common people and nepotism in Party's camp made PPP highly unpopular. PPP; a party once considered to be the symbol of federation with very deep rooted influence in all parts of the country squeezed to be a local party of Sind province. PPP's leadership was opposed by judiciary, bureaucracy, and generally by the middle leadership of Army. All these circumstances proved counter productive for PPP and in 2013, it was completely wiped of from all areas other than rural Sind.

GE 2013 were held in May and the real competition was between PML-N and PTI. Although PPP competed in all provinces as well as in the center but it was already known that they will lose due to their poor performance during the last five years' rule. As a result of GE, the country observed a new trend. All the provincial parties belonging to their specific provinces won the elections and no party could be identified as a central party with their influence all over the country. Punjab elections were won by PML-N: a Punjab based party, KPK elections by PTI: a party led by Imran Khan (Niazi from KPK), Sind elections went to PPP: a party lead by Sindhi (Bhutto/ Zardari dynasty), and in Balochistan, nationalists Baloch leaders got majority votes. As is the electoral system of Pakistan, any party winning in Punjab; based on population, is successful in forming central government.PML-N, therefore, formed the federal government in the center.

keeping in view the past performance, steps taking for the betterment of governance, socioeconomic development, mass transportation projects, involvement in law and order situation and restoration of peace in the country in general and in Karachi in particular, probability of winning elections in 2018 is discussed for major political parties as under: -

Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP)

Once known as "Chain of unity among all the provinces" has almost done political suicide after the murder of Benazir Bhutto. Asif Ali Zardari, who never enjoyed good reputation being involved in corruption, ruined the party by sidelining ideological and sincere workers, and appointing his personal friends at important party as well as governmental positions. This not only resulted in discontentment of old and loyal workers of PPP but also inflicted heavy losses to overall performance of the government from 2008 to 2013. Party shrank to Sind only with no representation in KPK and Balochistan. In Punjab, those PPP candidates, who won the elections, primarily got success due to their own rapport, social work, and influence in public. During the later part of PPP government in Sind, party had major split when two trusted friends of Asif Ali Zardari, former Interior Minister of Sind Dr. Zulfiqar Mirza and former Senator Faisal Raza Abidi could not take the corrupt practices of the party leadership and spoke on media against such practices. This gave a major jolt to PPP and its already diminishing support was rapidly hagridden. Recent operation in Sind by Pakistan Rangers and arrests of very close aides of Asif Ali Zardari like Dr. Asim Hussain and others have proven their involvement in aiding terrorists, target killings, corruption and anti-state activities. These negative developments have adversely effected the good-will of PPP and its existence in the country has a serious question mark. Unfortunately, after the death of Benazir Bhutto, party is void of any mature and visionary leadership. Asif Zardari has tried to launch his only son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari in mainstream politics but he lacks experience, having lived in UK and ME all his life; does not know the dynamics of Pakistani social and political realities, and can not deliver what is expected from a leader who can replace seasoned and accomplished leader to the magnificence of Benazir Bhutto. On the face of it, it seems like Pakistan Peoples' Party has outlived its natural life and at present has no leadership, vision, and/ or plan that can revive its diminishing political entity in Pakistan. In 2018, it is expected that Peoples' Party will be able to win few provincial seats in interior Sind but on Federal level, will not have any worthwhile position. In Sind too, Dr Zulfiqar Mirza has become a major threat in Badin and surrounding areas. Urban areas of Sind have already fallen in favor of MQM for last few decades. If PPP has to revive itself, it needs a visionary and dynamic leader, strong and active leadership in Punjab and KPK, and has to disassociate itself from the criminal and corrupt elements in the party.

Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf (PTI)

Because of stubborn and inelastic political behavior, not been able to analyze ground realities, taking wrong decisions at domestic as well as political fronts, Imran Khan has rapidly lost his popularity. He is leading "the single man standing" party which becomes valueless without his personal charisma. In the recent past, he has lost local bodies elections in Punjab, narrowly escaped defeat in KPK, and was outnumbered in Sind by other political forces. Imran Khan has lost on all moral grounds he has called public for sit-ins and protests against government. His plea of corruption and fraudulent practices in election of 2013 have been rejected by an apex level tribunal, formed on his own request. His party lost by-elections of NA-122 and could not gain any support in local bodies elections. Exactly a day prior to the conduct of elections, the announcement of his divorce to Reham Khan proved to be the last nail in the coffin. If PTI has to win in GE 2018, Imran Khan and party leadership must reorganize the party at gross root level and have to focus at revolutionary social welfare programs in KPK. They still have almost two years in term. Instead of crying over the spilt milk, PTI shall focus on the good governance and introduction of an ideal democratic system in KPK which they can showcase as a model for the rest of Pakistan. They must also adopt solid measures to gain popularity in rural and backward areas of Punjab otherwise they will only be visible in urban areas as a saturated party and that is insufficient for them to come into power for next ten years.

Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N)

PML-N is ruling Punjab for the sixth term and has gained strong foothold in Punjab politics. Electoral system is such that any party winning GE in Punjab can easily form government in the center because of the population and number of seats for National Assembly. PML-N, being the ruling party for very long time has also acquired experience in use of unfair means during polling and is famous for misappropriation of votes. Party leadership is filthy rich and knows that "everything is for sale, if proper bid is offered" and this has always worked in their way. Party has never been hesitant in buying bureaucrats, members of provincial as well as national assemblies, lawyers, media persons and even Judges of lower courts to as high as Supreme Court of Pakistan. Party has no moral values or ethics. Its top leadership has told lies to the nation a number of times without feeling shame. Party's command is in the hands of Sharif dynasty and all key appointments within party as well as at government level are held by the family members of Sharifs. Party believes in such development projects which have tangible and visible effects with opportunities of earning high kickbacks. They are not bothered about providing basic social rights of education, health, clean drinking water etc to the public. Instead, their focus is on construction of motorways and metro bus system since such projects are visible to the public and are evidences of growth and development. Party, through Charter of Democracy (COD); an agreement of mutual cooperation between PPP and PML-N, bribery to those who are at the helm of affairs, blackmailing and corrupt practices in elections is likely to win GE 2018 in Punjab in particular and in KPK in general. Victory of PML-N is not because of their being popular party but its because of poor performance of other parties like PPP in Sind and PTI in KPK. In Punjab the ground is almost vacant for them because PPP has been wiped out and PTI has been unsuccessful in making any headway in the 80% population living in the rural areas.

Mutehidda Qaumi Movement (MQM)

MQM has been an influential sociopolitical ethnic group of Urdu speaking community in urban areas of Sind. MQM has been winning National/ Provincial, and Local Bodies elections in Karachi, Hyderabad and other urban areas of Sindfor the last three decades. Despite repeated efforts to have their influence in other parts the country, the party could not gain any worthwhile success. Recently, Altaf Hussain, leader of MQM; in self exile since 1984, is under investigation by Scotland Yard for cases of money laundering and murder of Dr. Imran Farooq: co-founder and close aide of Altaf Hussain, who had left the party due to conflicts with Altaf's policies. Within Karachi MQM is under clouds for strong evidences of involvement in target killing, providing protection to terrorists and anti-state elements, illegal land grabbing, kidnapping for ransom and collection of money from traders and merchants on gun point. These charges have deteriorated the image of MQM a great deal but due to their monopoly in urban areas of Sind for a long time, no immediate threat is present for them. PTI, Jamat e Islami (JI) and PPP are trying to replace them in urban areas but due to their poor performance people are not willing to elect them in forthcoming elections too. Although MQM's future is rapidly diminishing as their first tier leadership is directly involved in criminal activities but they have the capability to manipulate the election in the absence of any strong rival. MQM needs to reorganize and think outside the box for sustenance in future. They need to look for alternate leadership that can keep them united after Altaf Hussain and also need to build a rapport of non-involvement in criminal activities by handing over the criminals in their ranks to law enforcing agencies.           

MQM Minus Altaf Formula

Recent speeches of Altaf Hussain, the founder leader of MQM have raised number of questions about his mental health, trustworthiness and sanity. He sounds ill, his speeches are are not interlinked and it sounds as he has no control over his words while delivering his long telephonic addresses.

Altaf Hussain also seems unsatisfied from the performance of his "Rabita Committee" members and has alleged them for involvement in illegal land occupation (land mafia) and Bhatta collection. He has a number of times dissolved Rabita Committee and has also announced to retire as the leader of MQM.

There is no doubt that Altaf Hussain has used Mohajir card very effectively and through this tactics he has vast following in urban areas of Sindh, specially in Karachi and Hyderabad. Majority of migrants from India who got settled in these cities of Sindh have got together under the flag of MQM and have supported Altaf Hussain for his political thoughts. In the recent times, however, a large number of these people are not satisfied by the speeches and acts of Altaf Hussain. They may not express their feelings openly in public fearing the consequences but in private discussions, there is a lot of discontentment.

Based on above facts and the ailing physical health of Altaf Hussain, it is just time that MQM must be guided for alternative leadership in the life of Altaf Hussain. This will help MQM stay united under a central leadership and Altaf Hussain can mentor the next leader personally. No one is eternal and Altaf Hussain is also subject to fading away sooner or later. It is in the best interest of MQM that they should be given a new leader by Altaf Hussain himself before its too late and MQM breaks into many groups under different leaders and the whole scenario of politics in Karachi changes. It is of more importance as other political forces like PTI, JI, PPP and ANP are causing serious threats to the monopoly of MQM. 

Emotional attachment of Mohajirs with Altaf Hussain is natural but it is about time that they must understand the ground realities and give someone else a chance to keep them united on one platform. It is a situation similar to South Africa where Nelson Mandela provided alternate leadership to his nation in his life and left no vacuum at the political front. 

PPP - Breaking in the Making

Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto founded and raised Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) with a vision to empower labourers, farmers, factory workers and poor class of the society. His slogans were very attractive and represented the wishful dreams of poor people. Pakistan Peoples' Party, thus; within few years, became the most favourite party of the country and won first ever General Elections held in 1970 in West Pakistan with overwhelming majority. The slogan of Roti (food to eat), Kapra (dress to wear), and Makan (Shelter to live) was something desired by every human being and this dream slogan kept the party alive for decades. 

After judicial murder of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, PPP fought against the military regimes of 1977 and 1999, under the leadership of Benazir Bhutto (daughter of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto) and gained public sympathy because of murder of her father and two brothers. PPP workers also stood firm against the brutalities of Zia's martial law and the party came up as an ideological party and a hope for the poor. Due to its influence in all the four provinces, Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, PPP was considered as a political force that can bind all the provinces and areas of Pakistan as one federal unit. This status of the party remained popular till early 90's thereafter, things started deteriorating because of Benzir Bhutto's husband Mr. Asif Ali Zardari's involvement in corruption and getting kickbacks on various mega governmental projects. He became famous as Mr 10%.

Another major opposition to PPP was Punjab based Zia backed Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) PML (N), who posed serious hindrance to PPP in all provinces, especially in the most populated province of Punjab. Both parties caused considerable loss to each other when they took turns in forming central governments. Both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Shareef took two turns each as Prime Ministers. Although this introduced two party politics in the country but both got involved in corruption and making personal money. This gradually created the distance between rulers and general public and none of the party made any serious efforts to keep the harmony and unity amongst the masses.

On the broader spectrum, the situation in the region, Russian invasion in Afghanistan, involvement of USA, Iranian Islamic revolution and its counter measures by Saudi Arabia and Gulf nations, economic growth in China, and India's race towards becoming super power left their impact on internal socio-political situation in Pakistan. Country was subject to all kinds of factors leading towards disintegration. People split on the basis of religion, sects, geography, linguistics, and regional politics. During the martial law/ emergency imposed by General Parvez Musharraf, all sorts of political activities were seized and leadership of PPP and PML (N) was exiled. This further deteriorated the political situation and the nation was prone to target killings, religious based killings, suicidal bomb attacks, attacks on major military and civilian installations and other forms of religious and ethnic extremism. 

After the murder of Benazir Bhutto, PPP's reins were taken over by Mr. Asif Ali Zardari as Co-Chairman of PPP and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (Benazir and Asif Zardari's son) was made its Chairman to take over the party on gaining the age of becoming member of the Parliament. Zardari was already notorious for his corruption and this accidental takeover of PPP by him aired discontentment in party workers. Barring the leaders of PPP Sindh Province, where PPP was in power, all other leaders and party workers had a silent resentment and this widened the gulf between the leadership and party workers. Workers of PPP always had the vision of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in mind and looked for a leader who could make efforts to get them out of miseries and provide them the basic necessities of life like "Roti, Kapra, and Makan".

Recently, Imran Khan of Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) and Dr. Tahir ul Qadri of Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) started their movements of "change" and "revolution" and enlightened common people of their basic social and constitutional rights. This motivated people to join their movements and leave the parties they were associated with for the reason than none of the parties had done anything for the welfare of common people. Workers of PPP in Punjab, Balochistan, KPK and other parts overwhelmingly shifted their loyalties from Bhutto's Party to Khan's and Tahir ul Qadri's party basically due to the reason that leadership and workers had a great communication gap and the dreams were beings dealt by the two leaders of the movements. PPP leadership mostly restricted to drawing room politics and never bothered to reach out and meet the workers.

Due to 2 party system of politics, PPP and PML (N) signed an agreement called Charter of Dmocracy (COD) through which they reached to an understanding that both will co-operate with each other for mutual benefits and no cases of corruption will be opened against each other. This also caused resentment in PPP workers since they wanted PPP leadership to make serious efforts and stop the looting and misappropriation of money by PML (N).

Above are the reasons that have left the party in shambles and the Chairman (Bilawal Bhutto Zardari) and Co-Chairman (Asif Ali Zardari) have to take major steps if they have to bring the party back to mainstream politics at national level. Some measure they need to take immediately are : -

• Leave the reconciliation policy aside and take a serious stance against their traditional rivals like PML (N) and MQM.
• Re-elect the local leadership at the lowest level and restructure the hierarchy within the party.
• Meet party workers frequently and make them believe that they have not been abandoned.
• Bring their assets from abroad in the country and show real development in the rural areas of deprived Sindh and Balochistan.
• Established refreshed command network in Punjab that can mobilize people.
• Wash away the stigma of drawing room politics and empower party workers to make them understand that they are still at the helm of party affairs.
• Show clear stance against non-democratic forces and deny their back-door nexus with regional or linguistic parties.
• Get rid of disloyal elements who have gained dtrong roots in the party just for their personal gains.
• Bilawal Bhutto must encash the affection and love he enjoys amongst the poor and village based people who treat him as their beloved and saviour being the son of their ideal leader Benazir Bhutto and grandson of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto.